The amount of housing under construction is at an all-time high. But don't call your Millennial or Zoomer family and friends to congratulate them on their opportunity to start a new life quite yet. Because in spite of all the building being done, it seems that massive immigration flows (legal and illegal) will completely swamp the new supply.
No, as we approach 1 million illegal alien "gotaways" since Biden took office, 1 million new Biden "asylum-seekers" (mostly economic migrants in reality), and the usual 1 million per year in green cards our system issues on autopilot, it's plain to see how the math really works out.
Immigration must be reduced across the board - beyond merely securing the border! Regardless of where you stand on proposals like densification, rezoning, and sprawling development, we will not substantially improve the opportunities for homeownership so long as the government ensures we have a massive additional source of housing demand through immigration.
One of the biggest issues in the news - and in people's lives - is the cost of housing.
The issue that has never led the conversation in the U.S. is the source of future housing demand. Immigration flows are virtually entirely responsible for U.S. population growth. But while immigration is seldom mentioned when reporting is done on housing demand, population growth does get mentioned over and over.
*Rule #1: Internalize immigration and population growth as the same thing in this context.
A second thing to remember is that virtually all of the political power aligns with those favoring endless growth - beneficiaries of supply increases, sprawl, and development.
*Rule #2: Resist the temptation to start agreeing with politicians whose sole focus is to propose increasing supply.
With those two rules in mind, let's hit some of the latest coverage:
Oregon gubernatorial candidate: "Oregon needs to build 580,000 new housing units over the next two decades just to close our housing supply deficit and keep up with population growth." (Does Oregon not have enough sprawl?)
Tennessee: "Several factors are driving up rental prices, but population growth is among the leading causes... 'I think we need to continue with the new developments just to keep on pace with the growth.'"
Atlanta: "The Atlanta Regional Commission says the city's affordable housing supply is not keeping up with the region's population growth."
The Washington Post: "But as those millennials have gotten married and started families, the options for them to buy have not kept up with population growth."
New York City: "About 560,000 apartments must be built by 2030 to accommodate population growth, according to a Real Estate Board of New York report." (Good luck with that!)
Rachel Cruze of Ramsey Solutions: "It's unlikely that home prices will go down in 2022 and beyond. Freddie Mac predicts home prices will grow at a slower rate of 4% in 2023, but they're not going to drop in the coming years. Remember, the only factors that could cause home prices to go down are related to supply and demand... buyer demand is still greater than housing supply—which is why prices will continue to go up, but at a slower pace."
Canada Reveals the Future:
Elsewhere in the world, the media and other institutions are a lot more transparent about the downstream effects of immigration on housing. This excellent reporting from Brietbart's Neil Munro compiles some of Canada's recent coverage and data.
ANDREW GOOD is the Director of the Media Standards Program for NumbersUSA
