The Center for Immigration Studies recently released new U.S. population projections. CIS projects that in 2060 the total U.S. population will be 404 million, an increase of 79 million from the year 2017 baseline. Of that increase, net immigration (the difference between those entering the country and those leaving) will add 75 million, or 95 percent of the total population increase.
The model used by CIS “replicates as closely as possible the assumptions and methods used in the U.S. Census Bureau's 2017 National Population Projections issued in March 2018 and then re-released after slight adjustments in September 2018.”
Unlike the projections released by the Census Bureau, CIS also included population and demographic trends under various immigration scenarios.
One fact revealed by the projections is that immigration has little effect on the aging of the U.S. population. CIS found that reducing the Census Bureau immigration projections by two-thirds results in a working-age population (16-64) that is 58% of the overall U.S. population in 2060. If immigration were not cut, the working-age percentage of the population in 2060 would be 59%.
Other CIS findings:
- Zero net immigration would result in a population of 329.2 million in 2060 (the current U.S. population is 328.5 million).
- Reducing the Census Bureau’s immigration projections by two-thirds, what CIS refers to as the “stabilization scenario,” would stabilize the U.S. population after the year 2040, and would result in a population of 354.3 million in 2060. This is 50 million less than the projection based on the Census Bureau’s immigration assumptions.
- Under the stabilization scenario, there would be 2.2 potential workers (ages 16-64) per retiree in 2060 compared to 2.5 under the Census Bureau immigration assumptions.
- Doubling of the Census Bureau immigration projections, such as would have occurred under the Gang of Eight immigration bill in 2013, would result in a total U.S. population in 2060 of 480 million.
The full CIS report can be found here.
